Monsoon revival unlikely before July 7, says IMD

Monsoon is unlikely to progress over the remainder of northwest India till July 7, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday. Monsoon rain over the country also will remain extremely subdued till then.

The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to undergo Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar. Since June 19, there’s no progress of the NLM. Monsoon is yet to hide Delhi, Haryana, parts of Uttar Pradesh , Rajasthan and Punjab

In a statement on Wednesday, IMD said the monsoon had weakened thanks to impact mid-latitude westerly winds that didn’t allow easterly winds to progress; unfavourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and absence of formation of low system over North Bay of Bengal which helps monsoon progress and brings rain in its path.

The MJO currently lies in Phase 1 (equatorial eastern Africa) with amplitude quite 1. it’s likely to propagate eastwards into Phase 2 (Western Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Arabian Sea) with amplitude on the brink of 1 by July 2 and further into Phase 3 (Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal) from July 7. MJO is probably going to gradually favour enhancement of convection and cross equatorial flow over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during Week 2 after July 7. MJO location and amplitude strongly modulates the intensity of tropical convection and features like low systems over the north Indian Ocean .